The oil and gas industry has had substantial difficulties recently as the globe continues to move towards cleaner and renewable energy sources. One of India’s leading oil refining and marketing firms, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), has managed to weather the storm and is still a major force in the sector.
In some recent news, the Indian Government plans to invest in Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) to support fuel retailers facing losses from selling fuel at lowered prices. With ₹30,000 crore set aside for state oil retailers, the government will have around ₹9,000-₹10,000 crore post rights issues of IOC and BPCL for HPCL. This move is in response to losses during the Russia-Ukraine conflict and to back energy transition projects.
HPCL also shared its Q1 FY2024 earnings recently which we will also be discussing in this article later.
Based on all these and HPCL financials, we will check the HPCL price prediction for 2023 to 2030. Is it wise to purchase the company’s stock?
Stock history of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (NSE: HINDPETRO)
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) was established in 1974, following the merger of Esso Standard and Lube India Limited. The business dominates the downstream oil and gas market in India, engaging in activities across the whole value chain, including refining, marketing, and transportation.
The history of HPCL’s stock has been affected by a number of market factors over time, including changes in national and international crude oil prices, as well as laws and regulations. Early in the new millennium, HPCL’s stock price increased significantly as a result of favorable government policies and rising petroleum product demand in India. The business went public in 2005, and shares of it are now traded on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE).
HPCL has faced inconsistent stock performance in recent years due to the challenges confronting the oil and gas industry. The company’s share price witnessed a significant drop in 2020 in line with the global economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia Ukraine war in 2022/23. However, HPCL has since made a recovery, and its share price has shown signs of growth.
The company has made substantial investments in modernizing its refineries, expanding its marketing network, and exploring new business opportunities in sectors such as renewable energy.
HPCL from the lows of Rs. 203 as of November, 2022 has recovered by 50% and more in the last 9 months.
Latest news about Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (NSE: HINDPETRO)
- The Mormugao Municipal Council (MMC) aims to retrieve Rs 15cr from HPCL.
- The government is poised to secure a dominant stake in HPCL.
- In Q1, HPCL reported a net profit of ₹6,766 cr.
- HPCL’s Q1 Performance: The company returns to profitability, benefiting from the stabilization of petrol and diesel prices, which bolstered market margins.
Below are the trading platforms that you can use to purchase Hindustan Petroleum Corporation shares:
HPCL Q1 FY2024 Results Summary
- Profit/Loss Status: Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) reported a robust net profit of ₹6,766 crore in Q1 FY24. This represents a stark turnaround from the previous year’s loss of ₹10,196.94 crore in the same quarter.
- Comparison to Preceding Quarter: The company’s profit surged by over 92%, as compared to the net profit of ₹3,222.62 crore in the quarter immediately preceding.
- Reason for Turnaround: A key factor for this positive change was the freezing of retail petrol and diesel prices by HPCL and other government-owned fuel retailers (Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL)). This decision was taken last year to protect domestic consumers from escalating global oil prices.
- Operational Highlights: HPCL achieved several operational records during this period. Their refineries processed an all-time high quarterly crude throughput of 5.40 million tonnes (MT), marking a 12.3% growth YoY. There was also a record production of diesel and Lube Oil Base Stock at the refineries.
- Sales Performance: The company witnessed its highest ever quarterly total sales volume (including exports) of 11.85 MT, reflecting a 10.7% growth YoY. In the domestic sector, HPCL recorded a record quarterly sales volume of 11.43 MT, a 9.4% growth YoY. Notably, sales of Motor Fuels also saw a significant rise with petrol sales growing by 9.3% YoY and diesel sales by 10.8% YoY.
- Pricing Dynamics: The softening of global oil prices helped the company, with prices dropping from a peak of USD 139 per barrel in March 2022 to about USD 75 per barrel by May-June. This contributed significantly to HPCL’s positive marketing margins.
- Revenue and GRMs: HPCL’s revenue from operations dipped by 2% to ₹1.18 lakh crore. The Gross Refining Margin (GRM) for the quarter stood at USD 7.44 per barrel, down from USD 16.69 per barrel in the same quarter last year.
- Other Financials: The company’s other income for Q1 FY24 included a gain of ₹131.48 crore due to foreign currency transactions, a notable difference from the loss of ₹945.40 crore in the same category in April-June 2022.
- Infrastructure Investments: HPCL invested ₹3,399 crore from April to June 2023 to bolster its refining and marketing infrastructure.
HPCL has made a significant recovery in Q1 FY24, propelled by strategic decisions on fuel pricing, softening of global oil prices, and robust operational performance.
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HPCL year to date has given a return of 10.84%. As of August 22, 2025, Hindustan Petroleum share price is trading at Rs. 260 with a marketcap of Rs. 36,895 Crore. Hindustan Petroleum share price for the month of August 2023, is expected to trade in between ₹290 and ₹251.45. Maximum price HPCL share might reach in 2023 is ₹350.72 which is expected to happen by December, 2023. HPCL’s lowest price for 2023 is ₹215.
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HPCL’s maximum price predicted for December 2024 is ₹575.03, while the minimum price expected is ₹297.99 in May 2024.
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HPCL in 2025 is expected to trade in between ₹404.76 and ₹697.52.
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HPCL’s share price is expected to fluctuate significantly between 2026 and 2030.
In 2026, the minimum price is predicted to be around ₹341.79 while the maximum price is expected to be around ₹488.26. This shows a bearish trend as the minimum price is lower than the minimum price in 2025. However, in 2028, the maximum price is expected to soar to ₹747.04, showing a bullish trend.
In 2029 and 2030, the average target price is significantly high, with a maximum price of ₹1,534.55 and ₹1,708.93, respectively, indicating a highly optimistic outlook for the company. However, the minimum price is also high, with ₹1,074.18 and ₹1,196.25, respectively, which implies that there could be significant volatility in the share price.
Investors should keep a close eye on HPCL’s performance in the coming years to see if it meets the high expectations set by the market. Overall, the data suggests that HPCL’s share price is likely to experience a mixture of bullish and bearish trends over the next few years, with an average target price that is highly optimistic.
Financial Condition of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation: Last 5 years
Sharekhan has a positive outlook on Hindustan Petroleum Corporation and suggests purchasing the stock with an expected target price of Rs 286. (7th June, 2023)
Prabhudas Lilladher has changed their recommendations from BUY to HOLD, with a price target of Rs. 264. (3rd August, 2023)
HPCL Price Target by ICICI Direct
By the end of 2023, it is expected that the per share price of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation will rise to ₹350.72.
The share price target of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation for 2025 might be around ₹697.52
By the end of 2030, the share price of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation is expected to reach approximately ₹1,708.93 per share.
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Conclusion: Should you invest in HPCL in 2023?
Given the rise in income, PAT, revenue, and profit during the previous three years, it is clear that HPCL has had consistent growth. Hindustan Petroleum was able to raise its sales by 90%, going from Rs. 2,19,509.87 crores in March 2018 to Rs. 440,709 crores in March 2023. However, HPCL reported losses in March, 2023, which the company seems to have almost recovered in Q1 2024.
HPCL in my opinion is not a good investment at this point. I would personally wait HPCL to correct by 20 to 30% before taking a fresh entry. With Government companies, it is better to wait patiently till it comes to your buy zone. Though the stock is only trading at 1.16 times is price value as of August 15, 2023, I would still stay away from it.
Once the price correct, HPCL shares appear to be a good investment option for swing trades who are looking for a long-term investment option.
What did we learn?
- 1 Stock history of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (NSE: HINDPETRO)
- 2 Latest news about Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (NSE: HINDPETRO)
- 3 How to purchase Hindustan Petroleum Corporation shares?
- 4 HPCL Q1 FY2024 Results Summary
- 5 Share Price Prediction of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation: 2023 to 2030
- 6 Financial Condition of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation: Last 5 years
- 7 Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Share Price Target by Experts
- 8 FAQS
- 9 Conclusion: Should you invest in HPCL in 2023?